CES 2010 Predictions

OK, sports fans, time to put it all out there. I get the privilege to attend the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas Nevada this year, and as such I'm gearing up for what tends to be a hype-laden whirlwind of tech gadgets, vaporware, and shameless self-promotion (which I'm trying to get better at...just take a look at this).

Soooo...without further adieu, Here are MY predictions for what will and will not be HOT at CES this year:

HOT:

1. 3D TV - Not because it is cool, but instead because the Media Machine has determined that it WILL be hot no matter what. Basically, there is nothing else they feel they can get you to plunk down your hard-earned cash for right now, so 3DTV is it. Now that we have all bought outrageously high-priced flat-panel HDTVs, and now that those suckers are getting cheap, we need something else to fleece entice you with. My prediction: 3DTV will flop just like the videophone. Why? Because, my friends, we live in an ADHD society, where we can't simply do one thing for very long. OK, perhaps at the movie theatre once in a great while we can sit there and eat popcorn for a couple of hours and enjoy a real movie. But at home we are doing many things at once, which means we won't be looking straight at the screen all the time and the 3D effect simply won't be that compelling. We won't want to put those goofy 3D glasses on and sit straight up and look straight at the screen. Not for more than a couple times that's for sure. Mark my words - 3DTV will go the way of the CB radio - until something really cool comes along like 3D without glasses. That would be the equivalent of the cell phone!

2. Nexus One - Contrary to my previous posts, and to my utter amazement, it appears that Google MAY have pulled this one off right. I have not personally tested one of these things, but my sources tell me it is rock solid and well designed. Not quite an iPhone killer, but with a huge chunk of media hype behind it courtesy of Google and their buddies, it may prove to put a serious leaker in the venerable Apple frontrunner. Keep an eye on this one.

3. Tablets, Tablets, Tablets! - Yep, it does look like 2010 will be the year of the tablet, thanks to our friends over in Cupertino. All sources point to an announcement by Apple Jan 26 that will confirm a new Apple Tablet [iSlate or something like that] to be available in March. In anticipation, all the posers and copycats appear to be already gearing up to cash in on Apple's anticipated validation of this new category of computing device. My prediction: The Hype will seriously lead the reality and, although Apple may indeed have something, there will be a LOT of wheat to separate from the chaff. So do yourselves a favor, keep your wallets in your pockets at least until June to make sure you aren't simply paying for the privledge of QA'ing someone elses buggy new plaything.

4. Anything Android - OK this is kind of double-dipping the #2 entry, but the Nexus One may actually be in a class by itself. In any event, Android is shaping up to be one of the few possible competitors to Apple's mobile computing platform juggernaut.

5. eBook readers - This category, pioneered by the Kindle and KindleDX, is an interesting one. I never thought I would buy a dedicated device to simply read books on, but when I got the chance to see and hold a KindleDX recently I knew Amazon was onto something. I still feel a device dedicated to reading will not fly, but if you throw in web surfing, eShopping, video, audio and media...with a 6x9 book form factor, long battery life, thin and light, and a pricetag somewhere south of $199, then you will have something. It needs to play inside a niche carved out between portable music players [read: iPod touch] and full-fledged tablets. Stay tuned on this one.

NOT:

1. Blu-ray. Why is this tech not hot? Think about it. On a small disk you can place 1080P, HDTV video, long enough to store an entire movie. Why is this not really cool? I'll tell you why...because there is no longer any MONEY in it. The players are finally cheap enough. The content is there. What's the problem? The problem is human nature. Most folks would rather stream a highly-compressed, low-res video over the Internet immediately than wait to buy a Blu-Ray disk. For most things, quality just doesn't matter as much as convenience. As Spock said: "It is not logical...but it is often true."

2. Digital cameras - So passe'. So last century. It's really a shame, since even the cheapest crapola digicam can outshoot any camera on a phone. Don't believe the reviewers. All camera-phone cameras suck way more than dedicated cameras cause their lenses are too slow, their "flashes" don't work right if at all, and they have really rudimentary exposure systems. The fact that folks don't really care about these issues simply underscores my previous statement that people will gladly trade quality for convenience.

Well there you have it, my predictions for CES 2010. But the most important metric of the entire conference will NOT be the hottest tech gadget. No way. Instead the most telling metric of the CES 2010 conference will be - ATTENDANCE. Yep, CES attendance is one indicator of technology industry health for the coming year. Since space is booked months in advance, however, it is probably a lagging indicator. Last year, CES attendance fell to one of the lowest figures in recent memory - approximately 110,000, which was a whopping 22% less than the previous year. And, as we all are painfully aware, 2009 was not a banner year for much of anything. If you watch nothing else regarding CES - watch the attendance. I predict that attendance will be around 120,000. North of that and we are in for a good year. Significantly less than that, I think we may see a repeat of 2009.

Kind of like Groundhog day for technology....stay tuned!