CES 2010 Epilogue

OK, after way too much walking, talking, schmoozing, eating crappy trade show hotdogs, walking, swilling old coffee, pitching ideas, ignoring slot machines, avoiding cabs, walking, looking at booths and wondering "what were they thinking..." all the while wishing I had one-tenth of their booth-babe budget, we are finally done with CES 2010. And here are my concluding thoughts.

Reflections on predictions

Last week I made several not-so-bold predictions, and now [unlike anybody else who makes predictions] I'm going to actually discuss what I predicted after the fact. Yep, it's now time to fess up and see how the predictions actually fared. Here goes:

1. "3DTV will flop just like the videophone." We will have to wait until the jury ultimately comes in on this one, but after actually being able to view the demos, talk to folks, and more fully consider the issue, my opinion on this one still stands firm. I don't see 3DTV making serious inroads into the living room of the everyday consumer any time soon, even if the price drops. Sure, the demos were impressive. Great eye candy. But the truth is most folks simply don't care that much about the fidelity of their TV viewing experience at home. I do, however, feel that 3D will have a somewhat positive future in the gaming niche. I can see gamers with headsets and glasses enjoying this technology immensely.

2. "Nexus One ... may prove to put a serious leaker in the venerable Apple frontrunner". Nexus One was nowhere to be found at CES. Upon further reflection this makes perfect sense. Google is equally arrogant about trade shows as Apple, so they would not be caught dead there. They did try to upstage the show by announcing [in true Steve Jobs fashion] the day before it opened. Nexus One will be a significant phone this year [perhaps the most significant given the Android platform and Google's marketing muscle]. But it was a non-issue at CES. 

3. "Tablets: The hype will seriously lead the reality". Except for Ballmer's completely underwhelming HP slate demo at the Microsoft CES keynote, tablets were nowhere to be found at CES, practically speaking. 

4. "Anything Android [will be hot]". Again, looks like Android is not ready for prime time either, as the platform for mobile devices was seriously under-represented at CES 2010. I can hear the "Wait till next year!" cries from Android enthusiasts already.

5. "eBook readers [will be hot if they can get below $199]". I stand by this prediction, and again only time will tell. But if things pan out as I think they will, eBook readers will only be successful in numbers other than niche applications if they can get below $199, and do it quickly [like in the next year or so]. Otherwise, the broader tablet category has a better chance of some success.

6. "Blu-ray players [will not be hot]". I got this one nailed. Blu-ray was at best an afterthought at CES 2010.

7. "Digital cameras [will not be hot]". Again, score. Digcams WERE an afterthought.

8. "Attendance will be around 120,000".  We'll have to wait for the official show attendance numbers, but it was clear to me from talking with others that attendance was way above that of 2009 levels. 

General CES 2010 impressions

In general, CES 2010 was a good show. Lots of positive energy. interesting tech, and an air of dealmaking and optimism long-missed and overdue. The vector is definitely in the right direction for 2010 and I hope it continues. Unfortunately, there were no "showstopper" announcements or eye-opening tech demos, but there rarely is anymore. It's just way too hard to come up with something so new and different that it's a surprise any more. The only surprise that can happen, given our penchant for new tech, is that one of these products actually works as advertised. But that's a detail left up to the engineers to work out long after the popcorn and booth babes have dried up. In general, I'm really glad I went, but I'm pretty sure my feet disagree.