I was asked by John McCoy, a friend of mine from Kodak, what "the hard call" was I referred to in my last post about the Apple iPad announcement. What was hard to call was the price. Most folks had it much higher...starting at around $1000. I knew Stevie-boy was too shrewd for that jazz. I had it nailed over a month ago.
Besides, he wants to KILL the Kindle. This will do that...in about 2 years. Another prediction for you to all write down and keep score with.
John also asked me what I thought Apple's next move may be. He thinks it might be a new gaming machine.
My take: Apple's next product? Who knows! Seems like, wherever there is a revenue stream to be capitalized upon, they will be there. But dedicated game machine? I don't think so. I think Steve is making a broad platform...and ALL of them will play great games!
What do you guys think?
20100127
Apple iPad - I told you so!
Apple just announced their fabled "iPad" and it looks like a winner to me.
Of course, if you refer back to my previous posts, you'll see that the most important aspects were covered nicely:
1. Price - without 3G the price range is between $499 and $699 - EXACTLY what I predicted in December.
2. Text input - UX - Apple appears to have addressed the input and user experience questions extremely well. Only time will tell, but with a great onscreen keyboard, gesture-based UI to the max, as well as accessories like the Kickstand, and Aux BT keyboard in place, I think this thing will FLY off the shelves.
3. Actually, there were no surprises after all. We've all talked about and known what was needed to make a compelling tablet - low price, great UX, deal with issues like text input and data plans. So the real event here was that Steve Jobs could get us all worked up about making an obvious product, and doing it right!
Get ready for a wild ride once developers start cranking out iPad apps!
Of course, if you refer back to my previous posts, you'll see that the most important aspects were covered nicely:
1. Price - without 3G the price range is between $499 and $699 - EXACTLY what I predicted in December.
Also, what Apple SHOULD do - but probably can't, is offer a tethering option for iPhone users just like I wrote about months ago, that would allow them to use their phone data plans with the wifi-only version for no extra charge. Think about it - why should I have to pay for a data plan for both my iPad and my iPhone, when we all know I can't possibly use these suckers at the same time. It would be a great offering.
3. Actually, there were no surprises after all. We've all talked about and known what was needed to make a compelling tablet - low price, great UX, deal with issues like text input and data plans. So the real event here was that Steve Jobs could get us all worked up about making an obvious product, and doing it right!
Get ready for a wild ride once developers start cranking out iPad apps!
20100125
Apple tablet announcement is not about the tablet
If anyone, anywhere, thinks the upcoming announcement by Steve Jobs and Apple this Wednesday is really about the new Apple tablet / iSlate / iPad or whatever you want to call it, or even about any other product that might or might not be announced, then I've got a news flash for you all.
You are dead wrong.
Yep. You heard it here first.
Sure. Apple and my buddy Steve might very well announce some new, cool product. Given all the "leaks", I expect it will probably be some sort of tablet form-factor portable computing device [how's that for geek-speak to suck the life out of a phrase?].
But what if a new tablet was not announced? What if the announcement was not much at all? Like last year, when the Hype Engine was again at Full Military Thrust in June, all guns blaring at the possibility of a new iPhone with, remember, things like:
You are dead wrong.
Yep. You heard it here first.
Sure. Apple and my buddy Steve might very well announce some new, cool product. Given all the "leaks", I expect it will probably be some sort of tablet form-factor portable computing device [how's that for geek-speak to suck the life out of a phrase?].
But what if a new tablet was not announced? What if the announcement was not much at all? Like last year, when the Hype Engine was again at Full Military Thrust in June, all guns blaring at the possibility of a new iPhone with, remember, things like:
- Front-facing camera
- OLED screen
- Removable battery
- Built-in videoconferencing
- Automatic Save the Whales
- Full Checkbook-balancing
Ok...but you get my point I hope. None of these things happened. In fact, the announcement was rather boring. But only Steve Jobs could do the following:
- Spin up an entire industry, whipping them up into a journalistic frenzy, spurring speculation upon speculation about what "might be coming next".
- Garner TONS of free and extremely valuable PR for his company, with very little actual investment on his part.
- Get TONS of free and extremely valuable product advice, with very little actual investment on his part.
A. To GET PEOPLE INTERESTED IN WHAT YOU DO. The struggle for relevancy in a sea of Internet sound bytes and techno-journalistic-babble is overwhelming. Yet Stevie-boy cuts through this crap with devastating ease. With something as simple as sending out an understated Press Invite to a "limited audience" [yeah, right, limited to the entire world], he turns the entire industry on its head, and turns the media into an extension of his PR team. Steve Jobs does this better than anybody else. He does it so well, he can actually create a new category without actually announcing a product. Think about it. Has Steve or Apple actually announced anything? Have they mentioned the word "tablet"? Nope. Yet several other companies have announced tablets, and many more have announced they are working on tablets. Yet, way before Apple makes any formal announcements, Steve can rest assured that there will be a nice, soft landing place for his new baby. Everybody else has made sure of this for him.
B. To GET PEOPLE TO NOTICE YOU. Now that he has manipulated the entire industry to create a new category for him, Steve has made damn sure that Apple is being discussed in every breath. Apple's new tablet is already the standard which all others are being measured by - yet it does not even exist! Apple already has the high ground, without firing a shot! By saying nothing, Steve Jobs has made the shrewdest of PR moves; he has won the hearts and minds of not only potential customers, but the journalists who write for them. And when you do this, you win.
C. To GET RELEVANT FEEDBACK ABOUT YOUR PRODUCTS. And, finally, after creating the category, and getting everybody to think that your product is the best in that category, what do you do? Well, if you are Steve Jobs, you get the entire industry to tell you what to build! Tons of stories, concepts, even mockups of what the ideal Apple tablet should be have already inundated the web-verse. Now, Apple may choose to ignore all this free product advice [because we all know they know best], but think about it. If it were your company, wouldn't you prefer to have the option of knowing what all your potential customers WANTED in a new product, in a new category, BEFORE you actually announced anything?
So my friends, when we all huddle around our computers on Wednesday, to hear the latest Sermon from the Mount Apple; as Steve comes down from the mountain with perhaps, not two, but hopefully at least one tablet in his hands, remember this:
It's not about the product - it's about how we are all dancing to Apple's tune!
And loving it in the process!
20100111
CES 2010 Epilogue
OK, after way too much walking, talking, schmoozing, eating crappy trade show hotdogs, walking, swilling old coffee, pitching ideas, ignoring slot machines, avoiding cabs, walking, looking at booths and wondering "what were they thinking..." all the while wishing I had one-tenth of their booth-babe budget, we are finally done with CES 2010. And here are my concluding thoughts.
Reflections on predictions
Last week I made several not-so-bold predictions, and now [unlike anybody else who makes predictions] I'm going to actually discuss what I predicted after the fact. Yep, it's now time to fess up and see how the predictions actually fared. Here goes:
1. "3DTV will flop just like the videophone." We will have to wait until the jury ultimately comes in on this one, but after actually being able to view the demos, talk to folks, and more fully consider the issue, my opinion on this one still stands firm. I don't see 3DTV making serious inroads into the living room of the everyday consumer any time soon, even if the price drops. Sure, the demos were impressive. Great eye candy. But the truth is most folks simply don't care that much about the fidelity of their TV viewing experience at home. I do, however, feel that 3D will have a somewhat positive future in the gaming niche. I can see gamers with headsets and glasses enjoying this technology immensely.
2. "Nexus One ... may prove to put a serious leaker in the venerable Apple frontrunner". Nexus One was nowhere to be found at CES. Upon further reflection this makes perfect sense. Google is equally arrogant about trade shows as Apple, so they would not be caught dead there. They did try to upstage the show by announcing [in true Steve Jobs fashion] the day before it opened. Nexus One will be a significant phone this year [perhaps the most significant given the Android platform and Google's marketing muscle]. But it was a non-issue at CES.
3. "Tablets: The hype will seriously lead the reality". Except for Ballmer's completely underwhelming HP slate demo at the Microsoft CES keynote, tablets were nowhere to be found at CES, practically speaking.
4. "Anything Android [will be hot]". Again, looks like Android is not ready for prime time either, as the platform for mobile devices was seriously under-represented at CES 2010. I can hear the "Wait till next year!" cries from Android enthusiasts already.
5. "eBook readers [will be hot if they can get below $199]". I stand by this prediction, and again only time will tell. But if things pan out as I think they will, eBook readers will only be successful in numbers other than niche applications if they can get below $199, and do it quickly [like in the next year or so]. Otherwise, the broader tablet category has a better chance of some success.
6. "Blu-ray players [will not be hot]". I got this one nailed. Blu-ray was at best an afterthought at CES 2010.
7. "Digital cameras [will not be hot]". Again, score. Digcams WERE an afterthought.
8. "Attendance will be around 120,000". We'll have to wait for the official show attendance numbers, but it was clear to me from talking with others that attendance was way above that of 2009 levels.
General CES 2010 impressions
In general, CES 2010 was a good show. Lots of positive energy. interesting tech, and an air of dealmaking and optimism long-missed and overdue. The vector is definitely in the right direction for 2010 and I hope it continues. Unfortunately, there were no "showstopper" announcements or eye-opening tech demos, but there rarely is anymore. It's just way too hard to come up with something so new and different that it's a surprise any more. The only surprise that can happen, given our penchant for new tech, is that one of these products actually works as advertised. But that's a detail left up to the engineers to work out long after the popcorn and booth babes have dried up. In general, I'm really glad I went, but I'm pretty sure my feet disagree.
Reflections on predictions
Last week I made several not-so-bold predictions, and now [unlike anybody else who makes predictions] I'm going to actually discuss what I predicted after the fact. Yep, it's now time to fess up and see how the predictions actually fared. Here goes:
1. "3DTV will flop just like the videophone." We will have to wait until the jury ultimately comes in on this one, but after actually being able to view the demos, talk to folks, and more fully consider the issue, my opinion on this one still stands firm. I don't see 3DTV making serious inroads into the living room of the everyday consumer any time soon, even if the price drops. Sure, the demos were impressive. Great eye candy. But the truth is most folks simply don't care that much about the fidelity of their TV viewing experience at home. I do, however, feel that 3D will have a somewhat positive future in the gaming niche. I can see gamers with headsets and glasses enjoying this technology immensely.
2. "Nexus One ... may prove to put a serious leaker in the venerable Apple frontrunner". Nexus One was nowhere to be found at CES. Upon further reflection this makes perfect sense. Google is equally arrogant about trade shows as Apple, so they would not be caught dead there. They did try to upstage the show by announcing [in true Steve Jobs fashion] the day before it opened. Nexus One will be a significant phone this year [perhaps the most significant given the Android platform and Google's marketing muscle]. But it was a non-issue at CES.
3. "Tablets: The hype will seriously lead the reality". Except for Ballmer's completely underwhelming HP slate demo at the Microsoft CES keynote, tablets were nowhere to be found at CES, practically speaking.
4. "Anything Android [will be hot]". Again, looks like Android is not ready for prime time either, as the platform for mobile devices was seriously under-represented at CES 2010. I can hear the "Wait till next year!" cries from Android enthusiasts already.
5. "eBook readers [will be hot if they can get below $199]". I stand by this prediction, and again only time will tell. But if things pan out as I think they will, eBook readers will only be successful in numbers other than niche applications if they can get below $199, and do it quickly [like in the next year or so]. Otherwise, the broader tablet category has a better chance of some success.
6. "Blu-ray players [will not be hot]". I got this one nailed. Blu-ray was at best an afterthought at CES 2010.
7. "Digital cameras [will not be hot]". Again, score. Digcams WERE an afterthought.
8. "Attendance will be around 120,000". We'll have to wait for the official show attendance numbers, but it was clear to me from talking with others that attendance was way above that of 2009 levels.
General CES 2010 impressions
In general, CES 2010 was a good show. Lots of positive energy. interesting tech, and an air of dealmaking and optimism long-missed and overdue. The vector is definitely in the right direction for 2010 and I hope it continues. Unfortunately, there were no "showstopper" announcements or eye-opening tech demos, but there rarely is anymore. It's just way too hard to come up with something so new and different that it's a surprise any more. The only surprise that can happen, given our penchant for new tech, is that one of these products actually works as advertised. But that's a detail left up to the engineers to work out long after the popcorn and booth babes have dried up. In general, I'm really glad I went, but I'm pretty sure my feet disagree.
20100109
CES Day Three
CES day three was a short one for me...I did not have much time before my flight, so I flew through the LVCC South Hall as fast as I could, trying to see something interesting [not an easy feat after three days of gadget and hype overload] before I bolted for McCarran.
Here are the winners of my totally unofficial and unscientific survey:
Winner of the Best Technology Award for Day Three goes to:
Here are the winners of my totally unofficial and unscientific survey:
Winner of the Best Technology Award for Day Three goes to:
Blue Ant. Just another Bluetooth headset? Not quite. It boasts complete voice control. If it works that would be great. You know what would even be greater? A BT headset that even approached the performance of....copper wire.
Winner of the most Hyped technology in Day Three is:
Plastic Logic's Que eReader. Sure eInk is cool, and putting it on a plastic substrate instead of glass is even cooler, and it will happen. But my sources tell me this technology is not quite ready for prime time. Question is: when it is ready, will anybody care?
Winner of the most Practical Day Three technology goes to:
Twist tie's, beware! This is the patented Cable Clamp. This sucker is easy, cheap and...wait for it...reusable!! Yep no cutting those ties off when you realize you need to add "just one more wire" to that bundle. Great, practical solution!
Winner of the Most Fun Day Three tech is:
Forget those DOD-class hovercrafts.... check out the latest offerings from VRC! These toys are cool and they work great! Grab one...if not for a Christmas present, for the heck of it!
And...[FINALLY]...last but not least, the winner of the most NECESSARY CES Day Three tech goes to:
OK...ok...crappy picture. But I wanted to get the company's name in the shot. The NEOX TS 5000 massage chair is the absolute best thing in the world! At $5k each, not cheap, but when you think about the aggravation and doctor's bills they might avoid, it could be a real bargain in the long run. My back may never walk again.
That's it...hope you enjoyed reading about CES as much as I enjoyed attending...or perhaps, if you listen to your feet...you even enjoyed it more!
CES Day Two
Well it's day two and my feet are screaming.
Here are the highlights:
NVidia had one of the most impressive 3D displays at CES. The necessary glasses, although cumbersome and stupid, will be perfectly acceptable for gamers so 3D gaming is probably what will drive this category no matter what anybody tells you. Pretty impressive.
Check out this awesome super small video camera from AEE. You can record while mobile, then connect via USB and upload your videos. Pretty cool.
Here are the highlights:
NVidia had one of the most impressive 3D displays at CES. The necessary glasses, although cumbersome and stupid, will be perfectly acceptable for gamers so 3D gaming is probably what will drive this category no matter what anybody tells you. Pretty impressive.
Asus now has a fantastic array of cute, small, practical, cheap, and robust netbooks and netbook-like products. The one pictured here boasts an awesome 14 hour battery life, enough to fly from Las Vegas to Taipei. Road warriors rejoice!
Check out this awesome super small video camera from AEE. You can record while mobile, then connect via USB and upload your videos. Pretty cool.
As I mentioned in one of my previous posts, Panasonic is making serious inroads in residential power storage, the last link in the chain for personal energy independence in the home. With one of these lithium-ion [or the alternative Fuel-Cell model!!] storage units, you can store juice from your solar cells during the day, and then party all night. We are really close to making this stuff functional, at least in areas where there is a lot of sun. Now it just has to get cheaper.
You are looking at the future of trade shows IMHO. This is the Photosimlie 360-degree light box from Ortery. With one of these rotating photo booths, you can scan most any object and show it online in immersive 3D. Now, given the horrible costs of trade shows, terrorism making travel dangerous and expensive, and the emergence of ubiquitous 3D viewing technology shown at the show this year, I predict it won't be long before we are working, collaborating, and even shopping more than ever before without leaving home. What a wonderful future that will be!
Now for some more...uh...interesting stuff:
Look closely. Click on the picture to enlarge it, and zoom way in. This is the Parrot AR.Drone Quadricoptor. This is a fully independent hovercraft being demoed. It worked great. It could hover near silently at most any height. Great for tracking those pesky terrorists, or tailing that unfaithful spouse. Little details like price, availability, and necessary security clearances were unavailable at press time.
One of the most popular items at the show were new WII peripherals, like this sub-machine gun shown here. Lots of fun, and practical too!
And last but not least...this guy. The company's product is actually very cool. It allows you to wage SMS marketing campaigns, which will probably be the bane of our existence in the coming years. But the maskot....ugh.
That's it...on to Day Three...
20100108
CES Day One
Well CES Day one is now history, and I have to admit there is a distinct, palpable air of optimism. Especially compared to last year's reports. This year, there are a lot of people out there. There is a lot of talk of deals. Things are happening. Only time will tell how much is pure talk and how much is reality.
What did I see on Day One that I liked. To be honest, not much. Not because the show is bad, but you have to understand that trade shows are just like that. They take time. Most of the stuff is crap. And you have spend inordinate amounts of time separating the wheat from the chaff.
The most impressive things I saw at CES Day One were as follows [in no particular order]:
Samsung Series 9000 LED flat screen TVs. This sucker was awesome. No 3D, just pure pixel beauty. This is truly one of those products that has to be seen to be appreciated. The picture does not do it justice.
What did I see on Day One that I liked. To be honest, not much. Not because the show is bad, but you have to understand that trade shows are just like that. They take time. Most of the stuff is crap. And you have spend inordinate amounts of time separating the wheat from the chaff.
The most impressive things I saw at CES Day One were as follows [in no particular order]:
Samsung Series 9000 LED flat screen TVs. This sucker was awesome. No 3D, just pure pixel beauty. This is truly one of those products that has to be seen to be appreciated. The picture does not do it justice.
FloTV. Very interesting concept. This year's CES seems to be marked by wireless transceivers in the home, and wireless content delivery when outside of the home. FloTV can work in both camps. I personally liked the personal TV product, shown here. Only time will tell if the pricing and content can live up to the concept. Nice start though.
Lenovo IdeaPads. Lenovo is really pushing hard in North America, and their new lineup of IdeaPads and other small computers can only help. I love the styling. They also have a rep for rock-solid robustness, which is rare in this business.
Roland drum Kit. Shown here in a booth actually selling cool headphones. But I liked this cause all these guys played electronic instruments, so you could not hear the band unless you put the earphones on your head. BTW, the sound was fantastic!
Cars. You can't have CES without cool cars. Here are a couple of my favs.
District Nine. For my brother-in-law Eric. Actual props from the movie at the Sony booth. I just couln't resist!
That's it. Gotta run back to the show!
20100104
CES 2010 Predictions
OK, sports fans, time to put it all out there. I get the privilege to attend the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas Nevada this year, and as such I'm gearing up for what tends to be a hype-laden whirlwind of tech gadgets, vaporware, and shameless self-promotion (which I'm trying to get better at...just take a look at this).
Soooo...without further adieu, Here are MY predictions for what will and will not be HOT at CES this year:
HOT:
1. 3D TV - Not because it is cool, but instead because the Media Machine has determined that it WILL be hot no matter what. Basically, there is nothing else they feel they can get you to plunk down your hard-earned cash for right now, so 3DTV is it. Now that we have all bought outrageously high-priced flat-panel HDTVs, and now that those suckers are getting cheap, we need something else to fleece entice you with. My prediction: 3DTV will flop just like the videophone. Why? Because, my friends, we live in an ADHD society, where we can't simply do one thing for very long. OK, perhaps at the movie theatre once in a great while we can sit there and eat popcorn for a couple of hours and enjoy a real movie. But at home we are doing many things at once, which means we won't be looking straight at the screen all the time and the 3D effect simply won't be that compelling. We won't want to put those goofy 3D glasses on and sit straight up and look straight at the screen. Not for more than a couple times that's for sure. Mark my words - 3DTV will go the way of the CB radio - until something really cool comes along like 3D without glasses. That would be the equivalent of the cell phone!
2. Nexus One - Contrary to my previous posts, and to my utter amazement, it appears that Google MAY have pulled this one off right. I have not personally tested one of these things, but my sources tell me it is rock solid and well designed. Not quite an iPhone killer, but with a huge chunk of media hype behind it courtesy of Google and their buddies, it may prove to put a serious leaker in the venerable Apple frontrunner. Keep an eye on this one.
3. Tablets, Tablets, Tablets! - Yep, it does look like 2010 will be the year of the tablet, thanks to our friends over in Cupertino. All sources point to an announcement by Apple Jan 26 that will confirm a new Apple Tablet [iSlate or something like that] to be available in March. In anticipation, all the posers and copycats appear to be already gearing up to cash in on Apple's anticipated validation of this new category of computing device. My prediction: The Hype will seriously lead the reality and, although Apple may indeed have something, there will be a LOT of wheat to separate from the chaff. So do yourselves a favor, keep your wallets in your pockets at least until June to make sure you aren't simply paying for the privledge of QA'ing someone elses buggy new plaything.
4. Anything Android - OK this is kind of double-dipping the #2 entry, but the Nexus One may actually be in a class by itself. In any event, Android is shaping up to be one of the few possible competitors to Apple's mobile computing platform juggernaut.
5. eBook readers - This category, pioneered by the Kindle and KindleDX, is an interesting one. I never thought I would buy a dedicated device to simply read books on, but when I got the chance to see and hold a KindleDX recently I knew Amazon was onto something. I still feel a device dedicated to reading will not fly, but if you throw in web surfing, eShopping, video, audio and media...with a 6x9 book form factor, long battery life, thin and light, and a pricetag somewhere south of $199, then you will have something. It needs to play inside a niche carved out between portable music players [read: iPod touch] and full-fledged tablets. Stay tuned on this one.
NOT:
1. Blu-ray. Why is this tech not hot? Think about it. On a small disk you can place 1080P, HDTV video, long enough to store an entire movie. Why is this not really cool? I'll tell you why...because there is no longer any MONEY in it. The players are finally cheap enough. The content is there. What's the problem? The problem is human nature. Most folks would rather stream a highly-compressed, low-res video over the Internet immediately than wait to buy a Blu-Ray disk. For most things, quality just doesn't matter as much as convenience. As Spock said: "It is not logical...but it is often true."
2. Digital cameras - So passe'. So last century. It's really a shame, since even the cheapest crapola digicam can outshoot any camera on a phone. Don't believe the reviewers. All camera-phone cameras suck way more than dedicated cameras cause their lenses are too slow, their "flashes" don't work right if at all, and they have really rudimentary exposure systems. The fact that folks don't really care about these issues simply underscores my previous statement that people will gladly trade quality for convenience.
Well there you have it, my predictions for CES 2010. But the most important metric of the entire conference will NOT be the hottest tech gadget. No way. Instead the most telling metric of the CES 2010 conference will be - ATTENDANCE. Yep, CES attendance is one indicator of technology industry health for the coming year. Since space is booked months in advance, however, it is probably a lagging indicator. Last year, CES attendance fell to one of the lowest figures in recent memory - approximately 110,000, which was a whopping 22% less than the previous year. And, as we all are painfully aware, 2009 was not a banner year for much of anything. If you watch nothing else regarding CES - watch the attendance. I predict that attendance will be around 120,000. North of that and we are in for a good year. Significantly less than that, I think we may see a repeat of 2009.
Kind of like Groundhog day for technology....stay tuned!
Soooo...without further adieu, Here are MY predictions for what will and will not be HOT at CES this year:
HOT:
1. 3D TV - Not because it is cool, but instead because the Media Machine has determined that it WILL be hot no matter what. Basically, there is nothing else they feel they can get you to plunk down your hard-earned cash for right now, so 3DTV is it. Now that we have all bought outrageously high-priced flat-panel HDTVs, and now that those suckers are getting cheap, we need something else to fleece entice you with. My prediction: 3DTV will flop just like the videophone. Why? Because, my friends, we live in an ADHD society, where we can't simply do one thing for very long. OK, perhaps at the movie theatre once in a great while we can sit there and eat popcorn for a couple of hours and enjoy a real movie. But at home we are doing many things at once, which means we won't be looking straight at the screen all the time and the 3D effect simply won't be that compelling. We won't want to put those goofy 3D glasses on and sit straight up and look straight at the screen. Not for more than a couple times that's for sure. Mark my words - 3DTV will go the way of the CB radio - until something really cool comes along like 3D without glasses. That would be the equivalent of the cell phone!
2. Nexus One - Contrary to my previous posts, and to my utter amazement, it appears that Google MAY have pulled this one off right. I have not personally tested one of these things, but my sources tell me it is rock solid and well designed. Not quite an iPhone killer, but with a huge chunk of media hype behind it courtesy of Google and their buddies, it may prove to put a serious leaker in the venerable Apple frontrunner. Keep an eye on this one.
3. Tablets, Tablets, Tablets! - Yep, it does look like 2010 will be the year of the tablet, thanks to our friends over in Cupertino. All sources point to an announcement by Apple Jan 26 that will confirm a new Apple Tablet [iSlate or something like that] to be available in March. In anticipation, all the posers and copycats appear to be already gearing up to cash in on Apple's anticipated validation of this new category of computing device. My prediction: The Hype will seriously lead the reality and, although Apple may indeed have something, there will be a LOT of wheat to separate from the chaff. So do yourselves a favor, keep your wallets in your pockets at least until June to make sure you aren't simply paying for the privledge of QA'ing someone elses buggy new plaything.
4. Anything Android - OK this is kind of double-dipping the #2 entry, but the Nexus One may actually be in a class by itself. In any event, Android is shaping up to be one of the few possible competitors to Apple's mobile computing platform juggernaut.
5. eBook readers - This category, pioneered by the Kindle and KindleDX, is an interesting one. I never thought I would buy a dedicated device to simply read books on, but when I got the chance to see and hold a KindleDX recently I knew Amazon was onto something. I still feel a device dedicated to reading will not fly, but if you throw in web surfing, eShopping, video, audio and media...with a 6x9 book form factor, long battery life, thin and light, and a pricetag somewhere south of $199, then you will have something. It needs to play inside a niche carved out between portable music players [read: iPod touch] and full-fledged tablets. Stay tuned on this one.
NOT:
1. Blu-ray. Why is this tech not hot? Think about it. On a small disk you can place 1080P, HDTV video, long enough to store an entire movie. Why is this not really cool? I'll tell you why...because there is no longer any MONEY in it. The players are finally cheap enough. The content is there. What's the problem? The problem is human nature. Most folks would rather stream a highly-compressed, low-res video over the Internet immediately than wait to buy a Blu-Ray disk. For most things, quality just doesn't matter as much as convenience. As Spock said: "It is not logical...but it is often true."
2. Digital cameras - So passe'. So last century. It's really a shame, since even the cheapest crapola digicam can outshoot any camera on a phone. Don't believe the reviewers. All camera-phone cameras suck way more than dedicated cameras cause their lenses are too slow, their "flashes" don't work right if at all, and they have really rudimentary exposure systems. The fact that folks don't really care about these issues simply underscores my previous statement that people will gladly trade quality for convenience.
Well there you have it, my predictions for CES 2010. But the most important metric of the entire conference will NOT be the hottest tech gadget. No way. Instead the most telling metric of the CES 2010 conference will be - ATTENDANCE. Yep, CES attendance is one indicator of technology industry health for the coming year. Since space is booked months in advance, however, it is probably a lagging indicator. Last year, CES attendance fell to one of the lowest figures in recent memory - approximately 110,000, which was a whopping 22% less than the previous year. And, as we all are painfully aware, 2009 was not a banner year for much of anything. If you watch nothing else regarding CES - watch the attendance. I predict that attendance will be around 120,000. North of that and we are in for a good year. Significantly less than that, I think we may see a repeat of 2009.
Kind of like Groundhog day for technology....stay tuned!
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