I'm not a big fan of Gizmodo's blog posts in general, but this guy has it right. So check out his post regarding the new, yet to be completely over-hyped, Google Android phone.
Bottom Line for those too lazy or time-starved to click the link above:
Google is going to be creating and marketing their own phone, apparently called the Nexus One, which is basically their version of an HTC Android phone with their own marketing behind it. They will apparently be selling unlocked phones which can be used on more than one carrier, which is relatively novel in the US [very common in Europe]. And, although interesting, this is definitely not new. Further, there are several issues with this approach:
1. It will cost more initially. Most US consumers buy on price. Period. This phone, when unlocked, will have to sell for over $300 without a carrier contract. Perhaps way over. Unless this thing is head and shoulders better than the iPhone, why would any "normal" consumer buy one?
2. It won't cost less per month. Do you think the carriers will charge you less per month just because you gave a bunch of money to Google? Perhaps, but not much. My guess is that monthly charges for the Nexus One will be no more than 25% less than an iPhone under contract. The presence alone of the GPhone will cause price pressure to ensure this happens.
3. It won't be as robust as the iPhone. HTC is a good ODM, but without the maniacal leadership from a company like Apple [who actually knows how to manufacture hardware and systems by the way] they will not approach Apple's build quality and robustness for a while. Sure they will get there, but not yet. I would not buy the first [or second] generation of the GPhone, unless you like headaches.
So, given all that, what's the big deal? I'll tell you. Techno-geeks, like the ones who write most tech blogs [but not this one of course ;) ] are BORED with the iPhone. So they want something else to write about and play with. The GPhone is their best bet; the coolest, brightest, shiny-est object out there. So they have anointed it as way cool and the Next Big Thing. Regardless of the facts.
Sure the Gphone will have great initial sales figures. Sure it will have a ton of marketing coverage. Sure it will be the darling of the consumer electronics industry and be all over CES next month. That is, until reality sets in with real consumers. Remember the Palm Pre?
Will Android-based devices be a big deal someday? You bet. In fact, I predict in 2011 Android could start making some serious inroads into the mass market and actually catch up with the hype. But until then it will just be a bunch of geeks and marketeers, hoping for the best.
Wait and see.
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I am waiting more for what is being speculated as a quick follow up with a netbook.
ReplyDeleteTom and I have been tossing emails back and forth on this one, so now time to comment.
ReplyDelete1: I held in my hands and used a Nexus One yesterday and as a long-time iphone user I can say that the phone is impressive. It does some things that iPhone does not, is essentially the same size but has a larger screen and is very well put together from a fit and finish. HTC is a great ODM and I think that the people at Google have been vigilant in making this a great piece. It's the first phone I've seen since July 2007 that has made me think of switching.
2: There are lots of models I can envision under which Google subsidizes this phone. They will likely build location based services that will use this phone and then send ads based on their ad model. They aggregate personal information and use it to sell "you" to their advertisers. This is going to be the next "portal" onto the internet and you bet that Google wants their fingers in that. There is no doubt in my mind that this phone will be subsidized by Google (i.e. they will sell it below cost)
3: not only will Google subsidize it, the carriers may as well. Consider this, if the carriers are subsidizing an already subsidized phone the cost to the consumer could reach $0. thus you have a highly functional, highly competitive piece to the iphone and it's free. The carriers will love it, as will the consumers.
4: to tom's point of it not being less per month, he's dead on there. But that doesn't matter. If you're going to buy into an always-on, always connected internet machine that fits in your pocket, you are going to pay for that service. that model is well established and I don't see it going away any time soon. But I don't see it being any more per month than iphone, blackberry or pre either.
The only thing that I can see possibly changing if a true "no subsidy" phone starts gaining traction is that there would be less of a contract commitment on the phones. You're starting to see this with the prepaid guys but not on the postpaid services, yet.
Of course Tom will accuse me of lusting after the latest bright shiny object, which is often true. I was a "first week" iPhone buyer when Tom said that he would wait (he did) But did I regret that decision, not for a minute. But I do seriously consider this Nexus One phone as a serious competitor to iPhone. Someone has finally delivered. Now, of course, what will Apple do in June when they go live with whatever comes next?
I have no doubt this will be an interesting segment over time. Android on a netbook sure makes more sense than Windows on a netbook! Now, if they link an Android store to all this stuff, then it could get REAL interesting!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment.
To Bill,
ReplyDeleteInteresting and useful information, thanks. Of course you are commenting on the "vision" of a Google Phone and your initial impressions of the feature set. Both of those are dead on. Now, the "reality" may be a little less pretty. We'll have to wait and see. See if the phone is robust. See if it is cheap. See if it is available.
As I have said, I have no doubt Google and Android will be a formidable competitor to Apple, but not immediately. Yes, all the geeks with ADHD [and you know who you are] will run out and get a Gphone. As for me, I prefer to wait and see. My iPhone 3GS will be a great machine for the next 2 years.