Little Digital Bits

Find out why

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 14:20:00 +0000

The world of business is changing. There is a growing trend toward more honesty, more generosity, more just plain human behaviour. And I like it.

My mad friend Joel D Canfield would like to lead the charge toward something totally different. Today, he's shifting his focus from his various businesses to a philosophy he thinks will change the world. In his words: "Too many people spend life stuck, going through the motions; believing they know what to do and how to do it, but never really clear on why. Finding 'why' makes 'what' and 'how' become clear. I want to help folks who are stuck being what the world expected to find their why, to find meaning and joy in life, and show the world who they really are."

Visit his brand new website http://FindingWhy.com/ and see what you think. As expected, there's honesty, generosity, just plain human-ness. 10,000 words already written and hundreds of thousands to come. Free downloads. Room for conversation. A little insanity.

Joel's putting out the welcome mat right now.

AT&T is not evil... just a little stupid.

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 13:21:00 +0000

Lots of flack has been generated of late regarding AT&T's recent announcement to enable iPhone tethering by eliminating the unlimited data plan option for those customers that want it. What this essentially means is, in the future unlimited data plans will probably go away. Initially, it will happen for new iPhone customers after June 7, but eventually everybody will probably be in that same boat.

For those too embarrassed to ask, "tethering" refers to the process of using your iPhone as a wireless modem. This means you can associate your iPhone [ostensibly through wired or wireless connection] with another computing device [laptop, iPad, what have you] and use the iPhone's 3G cellular connection to connect to the Internet with the other computing device. Since many folks who own an iPhone also use other devices on the road, this could be a boon to people on the go.

Another note, by "jailbreaking" your iPhone [which essentially means running a program that enables you to load apps that are NOT obtained from the Apple App Store] tethering is available right now for most iPhone customers. Problem is this practice is not sanctioned by Apple and there is a real danger you could mess up your iPhone at least temporarily and lose data. Many people don't want to take that chance.

So, for most of us, we have been stuck waiting for AT&T to provide some sort of iPhone tethering options. Most people in the press and blogosphere don't like what AT&T has come up with, but I think the proposed plans, while not optimum, are not all that bad. Before you kill me, let me explain.

AT&T is primarily in business to make money. I know that might come as a shock to the media, uber-geeks [besides me], and bloggers out there who think everything should be free for everybody and all corporations are evil. And, as such, companies are always striving [or should be] to strike a delicate balance between losing their asses and gouging their customers.

At first, an unlimited data plan for iPhone users probably sounded like a good idea to AT&T. Easier to manage, simple to explain, provides a constant revenue stream, etc. Besides, when there was a small number of iPhone customers, who cared? Well, times have certainly changed. People for the most part understand smartphones, data plans, and the difference between megabytes and M&Ms. And there are TONS of iPhone users, constantly slamming AT&Ts famously fragile and barely-capable network. This situation is clearly unsustainable for AT&T cause it simply cannot scale.

According to AT&T, 98% of all iPhone users currently use less than 2GB/mo of data. IF this is true, then I think they are being quite reasonable with the new plans. Here's why:

- It currently costs an iPhone user an extra $30/mo for an unlimited data plan.

- The new "Data Pro" data plan will cost $25/mo for a max of 2GB of data per month. If 98% of all current customers won't use more than this amount, then that means, if we don't change what we do [big if] then we all save 5 bucks a month.

- IF you want tethering, you need to add another $20/mo. Note this will NOT increase your data limit, just allow you to use that data limit differently. Chances are, if you are a heavy user, you'll use more data.

So it seems AT&T has given us all the option to move to a reasonable data plan for a little less money and, for the power and data-hungry users to get what's coming to them - a BILL. I'm sorry, but bandwidth is not free, and I for one don't feel like subsidizing all the hackers out there hosting websites from their iPads. I'm fine with this new setup. But I'm not abusing the current situation nor do I wish to.

What would have made the deal better? AT&T should have included tethering FREE with all limited data plans. That way, everybody could experiment with tethering. The way I look at it, bits are bits, and it should not matter to AT&T what you use those bits for, voice, phone data, or other device data. You would still be limited to the same number of bits in each plan, so all adding tethering would do is give you more ways to use those bits. If successful, all customers would quickly run over their data limits, giving AT&T the opportunity to make even more money charging exorbitant overage fees. With this approach, we all win.

But no, they had to take the stance that to even TRY tethering you must commit to pay an extra $20/mo for TWO YEARS, and still get NO MORE data allocation in your plan. That's ridiculous, and should not have been done.

So for that, AT&T, you get a solid C-...when you could have easily gotten the A.

3D with no glasses?

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 17:29:00 +0000

As I have said in my previous posts, unless 3D TV can be delivered with no requirement for glasses, it will never achieve mass-market consumer success in the home. Well, it seems someone heard me. A group in Singapore is claiming to have achieved a workable 3D system that does not require the use of glasses. In fact, they claim that the system will be demoed live at CeBit, the European tech-fest that occurs yearly in Hanover, Germany.

Cebit has been called the largest electronics show in the world. Some folks think that CES in Las Vegas is the biggest show. Lately I'm not sure. But in any case, this sucker is big. If you have the privilege to attend, try to find these guys and see their demo. And please let me know how it looks!

Naturally, I am skeptical that practical 3D can be delivered at any price without the aid of glasses or some special equipment. Other companies have claimed to have achieved this capability before. The "demo" usually consists of a large, glass-like box the observer needs to look into. The box has multiple panes of glass and/or mirrors that images can bounce off of.

3D? Possibly. Kind of. Sort of. But who cares? Is that what you want in your house? A huge, glass cube in the middle of your room? Think about it, the whole family sitting around this large obelisk, their heads bobbing to and fro, oohing and ahhing at the wonderful, 3D goodness? I don't think so.

The problem is, we consumers want it ALL. We want Avatar-quality 3D, in our homes, for no more than a 10-30% premium over what we pay now, with NO glasses, boxes, or other strange, room-encroaching apparati required.

Sorry, guys, but you may be able to demo something, and even get some press, but my prediction is that this is all you will get.

Let's wait and see. I'm always willing to be proven wrong.

What is Apple's next play?

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 04:23:00 +0000

I was asked by John McCoy, a friend of mine from Kodak, what "the hard call" was I referred to in my last post about the Apple iPad announcement. What was hard to call was the price. Most folks had it much higher...starting at around $1000. I knew Stevie-boy was too shrewd for that jazz. I had it nailed over a month ago.

Besides, he wants to KILL the Kindle. This will do that...in about 2 years. Another prediction for you to all write down and keep score with.

John also asked me what I thought Apple's next move may be. He thinks it might be a new gaming machine.

My take: Apple's next product? Who knows! Seems like, wherever there is a revenue stream to be capitalized upon, they will be there. But dedicated game machine? I don't think so. I think Steve is making a broad platform...and ALL of them will play great games!

What do you guys think?

Apple iPad - I told you so!

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 21:04:00 +0000

Apple just announced their fabled "iPad" and it looks like a winner to me.

Of course, if you refer back to my previous posts, you'll see that the most important aspects were covered nicely:

1. Price - without 3G the price range is between $499 and $699 - EXACTLY what I predicted in December.

Also, what Apple SHOULD do - but probably can't, is offer a tethering option for iPhone users just like I wrote about months ago, that would allow them to use their phone data plans with the wifi-only version for no extra charge. Think about it - why should I have to pay for a data plan for both my iPad and my iPhone, when we all know I can't possibly use these suckers at the same time. It would be a great offering.

2. Text input - UX - Apple appears to have addressed the input and user experience questions extremely well. Only time will tell, but with a great onscreen keyboard, gesture-based UI to the max, as well as accessories like the Kickstand, and Aux BT keyboard in place, I think this thing will FLY off the shelves.

3. Actually, there were no surprises after all. We've all talked about and known what was needed to make a compelling tablet - low price, great UX, deal with issues like text input and data plans. So the real event here was that Steve Jobs could get us all worked up about making an obvious product, and doing it right!

Get ready for a wild ride once developers start cranking out iPad apps!

Apple tablet announcement is not about the tablet

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 15:52:00 +0000

If anyone, anywhere, thinks the upcoming announcement by Steve Jobs and Apple this Wednesday is really about the new Apple tablet / iSlate / iPad or whatever you want to call it, or even about any other product that might or might not be announced, then I've got a news flash for you all.

You are dead wrong.

Yep. You heard it here first.

Sure. Apple and my buddy Steve might very well announce some new, cool product. Given all the "leaks", I expect it will probably be some sort of tablet form-factor portable computing device [how's that for geek-speak to suck the life out of a phrase?].

But what if a new tablet was not announced? What if the announcement was not much at all? Like last year, when the Hype Engine was again at Full Military Thrust in June, all guns blaring at the possibility of a new iPhone with, remember, things like:

Front-facing camera
OLED screen
Removable battery
Built-in videoconferencing
Automatic Save the Whales
Full Checkbook-balancing

Ok...but you get my point I hope. None of these things happened. In fact, the announcement was rather boring. But only Steve Jobs could do the following:

Spin up an entire industry, whipping them up into a journalistic frenzy, spurring speculation upon speculation about what "might be coming next".
Garner TONS of free and extremely valuable PR for his company, with very little actual investment on his part.
Get TONS of free and extremely valuable product advice, with very little actual investment on his part.

In fact, what are the three most difficult things for a company to get for little investment? They are:

A. To GET PEOPLE INTERESTED IN WHAT YOU DO. The struggle for relevancy in a sea of Internet sound bytes and techno-journalistic-babble is overwhelming. Yet Stevie-boy cuts through this crap with devastating ease. With something as simple as sending out an understated Press Invite to a "limited audience" [yeah, right, limited to the entire world], he turns the entire industry on its head, and turns the media into an extension of his PR team. Steve Jobs does this better than anybody else. He does it so well, he can actually create a new category without actually announcing a product. Think about it. Has Steve or Apple actually announced anything? Have they mentioned the word "tablet"? Nope. Yet several other companies have announced tablets, and many more have announced they are working on tablets. Yet, way before Apple makes any formal announcements, Steve can rest assured that there will be a nice, soft landing place for his new baby. Everybody else has made sure of this for him.

B. To GET PEOPLE TO NOTICE YOU. Now that he has manipulated the entire industry to create a new category for him, Steve has made damn sure that Apple is being discussed in every breath. Apple's new tablet is already the standard which all others are being measured by - yet it does not even exist! Apple already has the high ground, without firing a shot! By saying nothing, Steve Jobs has made the shrewdest of PR moves; he has won the hearts and minds of not only potential customers, but the journalists who write for them. And when you do this, you win.

C. To GET RELEVANT FEEDBACK ABOUT YOUR PRODUCTS. And, finally, after creating the category, and getting everybody to think that your product is the best in that category, what do you do? Well, if you are Steve Jobs, you get the entire industry to tell you what to build! Tons of stories, concepts, even mockups of what the ideal Apple tablet should be have already inundated the web-verse. Now, Apple may choose to ignore all this free product advice [because we all know they know best], but think about it. If it were your company, wouldn't you prefer to have the option of knowing what all your potential customers WANTED in a new product, in a new category, BEFORE you actually announced anything?

So my friends, when we all huddle around our computers on Wednesday, to hear the latest Sermon from the Mount Apple; as Steve comes down from the mountain with perhaps, not two, but hopefully at least one tablet in his hands, remember this:

It's not about the product - it's about how we are all dancing to Apple's tune!

And loving it in the process!

CES 2010 Epilogue

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 15:56:00 +0000

OK, after way too much walking, talking, schmoozing, eating crappy trade show hotdogs, walking, swilling old coffee, pitching ideas, ignoring slot machines, avoiding cabs, walking, looking at booths and wondering "what were they thinking..." all the while wishing I had one-tenth of their booth-babe budget, we are finally done with CES 2010. And here are my concluding thoughts.

Reflections on predictions

Last week I made several not-so-bold predictions, and now [unlike anybody else who makes predictions] I'm going to actually discuss what I predicted after the fact. Yep, it's now time to fess up and see how the predictions actually fared. Here goes:

1. "3DTV will flop just like the videophone." We will have to wait until the jury ultimately comes in on this one, but after actually being able to view the demos, talk to folks, and more fully consider the issue, my opinion on this one still stands firm. I don't see 3DTV making serious inroads into the living room of the everyday consumer any time soon, even if the price drops. Sure, the demos were impressive. Great eye candy. But the truth is most folks simply don't care that much about the fidelity of their TV viewing experience at home. I do, however, feel that 3D will have a somewhat positive future in the gaming niche. I can see gamers with headsets and glasses enjoying this technology immensely.

2. "Nexus One ... may prove to put a serious leaker in the venerable Apple frontrunner". Nexus One was nowhere to be found at CES. Upon further reflection this makes perfect sense. Google is equally arrogant about trade shows as Apple, so they would not be caught dead there. They did try to upstage the show by announcing [in true Steve Jobs fashion] the day before it opened. Nexus One will be a significant phone this year [perhaps the most significant given the Android platform and Google's marketing muscle]. But it was a non-issue at CES.

3. "Tablets: The hype will seriously lead the reality". Except for Ballmer's completely underwhelming HP slate demo at the Microsoft CES keynote, tablets were nowhere to be found at CES, practically speaking.

4. "Anything Android [will be hot]". Again, looks like Android is not ready for prime time either, as the platform for mobile devices was seriously under-represented at CES 2010. I can hear the "Wait till next year!" cries from Android enthusiasts already.

5. "eBook readers [will be hot if they can get below $199]". I stand by this prediction, and again only time will tell. But if things pan out as I think they will, eBook readers will only be successful in numbers other than niche applications if they can get below $199, and do it quickly [like in the next year or so]. Otherwise, the broader tablet category has a better chance of some success.

6. "Blu-ray players [will not be hot]". I got this one nailed. Blu-ray was at best an afterthought at CES 2010.

7. "Digital cameras [will not be hot]". Again, score. Digcams WERE an afterthought.

8. "Attendance will be around 120,000". We'll have to wait for the official show attendance numbers, but it was clear to me from talking with others that attendance was way above that of 2009 levels.

General CES 2010 impressions

In general, CES 2010 was a good show. Lots of positive energy. interesting tech, and an air of dealmaking and optimism long-missed and overdue. The vector is definitely in the right direction for 2010 and I hope it continues. Unfortunately, there were no "showstopper" announcements or eye-opening tech demos, but there rarely is anymore. It's just way too hard to come up with something so new and different that it's a surprise any more. The only surprise that can happen, given our penchant for new tech, is that one of these products actually works as advertised. But that's a detail left up to the engineers to work out long after the popcorn and booth babes have dried up. In general, I'm really glad I went, but I'm pretty sure my feet disagree.

CES Day Three

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 21:23:00 +0000

CES day three was a short one for me...I did not have much time before my flight, so I flew through the LVCC South Hall as fast as I could, trying to see something interesting [not an easy feat after three days of gadget and hype overload] before I bolted for McCarran.

Here are the winners of my totally unofficial and unscientific survey:

Winner of the Best Technology Award for Day Three goes to:

Blue Ant. Just another Bluetooth headset? Not quite. It boasts complete voice control. If it works that would be great. You know what would even be greater? A BT headset that even approached the performance of....copper wire.

Winner of the most Hyped technology in Day Three is:

Plastic Logic's Que eReader. Sure eInk is cool, and putting it on a plastic substrate instead of glass is even cooler, and it will happen. But my sources tell me this technology is not quite ready for prime time. Question is: when it is ready, will anybody care?

Winner of the most Practical Day Three technology goes to:

Twist tie's, beware! This is the patented Cable Clamp. This sucker is easy, cheap and...wait for it...reusable!! Yep no cutting those ties off when you realize you need to add "just one more wire" to that bundle. Great, practical solution!

Winner of the Most Fun Day Three tech is:

Forget those DOD-class hovercrafts.... check out the latest offerings from VRC! These toys are cool and they work great! Grab one...if not for a Christmas present, for the heck of it!

And...[FINALLY]...last but not least, the winner of the most NECESSARY CES Day Three tech goes to:

OK...ok...crappy picture. But I wanted to get the company's name in the shot. The NEOX TS 5000 massage chair is the absolute best thing in the world! At $5k each, not cheap, but when you think about the aggravation and doctor's bills they might avoid, it could be a real bargain in the long run. My back may never walk again.

That's it...hope you enjoyed reading about CES as much as I enjoyed attending...or perhaps, if you listen to your feet...you even enjoyed it more!

CES Day Two

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 21:06:00 +0000

Well it's day two and my feet are screaming.

Here are the highlights:

NVidia had one of the most impressive 3D displays at CES. The necessary glasses, although cumbersome and stupid, will be perfectly acceptable for gamers so 3D gaming is probably what will drive this category no matter what anybody tells you. Pretty impressive.

Asus now has a fantastic array of cute, small, practical, cheap, and robust netbooks and netbook-like products. The one pictured here boasts an awesome 14 hour battery life, enough to fly from Las Vegas to Taipei. Road warriors rejoice!

Check out this awesome super small video camera from AEE. You can record while mobile, then connect via USB and upload your videos. Pretty cool.

As I mentioned in one of my previous posts, Panasonic is making serious inroads in residential power storage, the last link in the chain for personal energy independence in the home. With one of these lithium-ion [or the alternative Fuel-Cell model!!] storage units, you can store juice from your solar cells during the day, and then party all night. We are really close to making this stuff functional, at least in areas where there is a lot of sun. Now it just has to get cheaper.

You are looking at the future of trade shows IMHO. This is the Photosimlie 360-degree light box from Ortery. With one of these rotating photo booths, you can scan most any object and show it online in immersive 3D. Now, given the horrible costs of trade shows, terrorism making travel dangerous and expensive, and the emergence of ubiquitous 3D viewing technology shown at the show this year, I predict it won't be long before we are working, collaborating, and even shopping more than ever before without leaving home. What a wonderful future that will be!

Now for some more...uh...interesting stuff:

Look closely. Click on the picture to enlarge it, and zoom way in. This is the Parrot AR.Drone Quadricoptor. This is a fully independent hovercraft being demoed. It worked great. It could hover near silently at most any height. Great for tracking those pesky terrorists, or tailing that unfaithful spouse. Little details like price, availability, and necessary security clearances were unavailable at press time.

One of the most popular items at the show were new WII peripherals, like this sub-machine gun shown here. Lots of fun, and practical too!

And last but not least...this guy. The company's product is actually very cool. It allows you to wage SMS marketing campaigns, which will probably be the bane of our existence in the coming years. But the maskot....ugh.

That's it...on to Day Three...

CES Day One

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 16:54:00 +0000

Well CES Day one is now history, and I have to admit there is a distinct, palpable air of optimism. Especially compared to last year's reports. This year, there are a lot of people out there. There is a lot of talk of deals. Things are happening. Only time will tell how much is pure talk and how much is reality.

What did I see on Day One that I liked. To be honest, not much. Not because the show is bad, but you have to understand that trade shows are just like that. They take time. Most of the stuff is crap. And you have spend inordinate amounts of time separating the wheat from the chaff.

The most impressive things I saw at CES Day One were as follows [in no particular order]:

Samsung Series 9000 LED flat screen TVs. This sucker was awesome. No 3D, just pure pixel beauty. This is truly one of those products that has to be seen to be appreciated. The picture does not do it justice.

FloTV. Very interesting concept. This year's CES seems to be marked by wireless transceivers in the home, and wireless content delivery when outside of the home. FloTV can work in both camps. I personally liked the personal TV product, shown here. Only time will tell if the pricing and content can live up to the concept. Nice start though.

Lenovo IdeaPads. Lenovo is really pushing hard in North America, and their new lineup of IdeaPads and other small computers can only help. I love the styling. They also have a rep for rock-solid robustness, which is rare in this business.

Roland drum Kit. Shown here in a booth actually selling cool headphones. But I liked this cause all these guys played electronic instruments, so you could not hear the band unless you put the earphones on your head. BTW, the sound was fantastic!

Cars. You can't have CES without cool cars. Here are a couple of my favs.

District Nine. For my brother-in-law Eric. Actual props from the movie at the Sony booth. I just couln't resist!

That's it. Gotta run back to the show!

CES 2010 Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 23:08:00 +0000

OK, sports fans, time to put it all out there. I get the privilege to attend the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas Nevada this year, and as such I'm gearing up for what tends to be a hype-laden whirlwind of tech gadgets, vaporware, and shameless self-promotion (which I'm trying to get better at...just take a look at this).

Soooo...without further adieu, Here are MY predictions for what will and will not be HOT at CES this year:

HOT:

1. 3D TV - Not because it is cool, but instead because the Media Machine has determined that it WILL be hot no matter what. Basically, there is nothing else they feel they can get you to plunk down your hard-earned cash for right now, so 3DTV is it. Now that we have all bought outrageously high-priced flat-panel HDTVs, and now that those suckers are getting cheap, we need something else to fleece entice you with. My prediction: 3DTV will flop just like the videophone. Why? Because, my friends, we live in an ADHD society, where we can't simply do one thing for very long. OK, perhaps at the movie theatre once in a great while we can sit there and eat popcorn for a couple of hours and enjoy a real movie. But at home we are doing many things at once, which means we won't be looking straight at the screen all the time and the 3D effect simply won't be that compelling. We won't want to put those goofy 3D glasses on and sit straight up and look straight at the screen. Not for more than a couple times that's for sure. Mark my words - 3DTV will go the way of the CB radio - until something really cool comes along like 3D without glasses. That would be the equivalent of the cell phone!

2. Nexus One - Contrary to my previous posts, and to my utter amazement, it appears that Google MAY have pulled this one off right. I have not personally tested one of these things, but my sources tell me it is rock solid and well designed. Not quite an iPhone killer, but with a huge chunk of media hype behind it courtesy of Google and their buddies, it may prove to put a serious leaker in the venerable Apple frontrunner. Keep an eye on this one.

3. Tablets, Tablets, Tablets! - Yep, it does look like 2010 will be the year of the tablet, thanks to our friends over in Cupertino. All sources point to an announcement by Apple Jan 26 that will confirm a new Apple Tablet [iSlate or something like that] to be available in March. In anticipation, all the posers and copycats appear to be already gearing up to cash in on Apple's anticipated validation of this new category of computing device. My prediction: The Hype will seriously lead the reality and, although Apple may indeed have something, there will be a LOT of wheat to separate from the chaff. So do yourselves a favor, keep your wallets in your pockets at least until June to make sure you aren't simply paying for the privledge of QA'ing someone elses buggy new plaything.

4. Anything Android - OK this is kind of double-dipping the #2 entry, but the Nexus One may actually be in a class by itself. In any event, Android is shaping up to be one of the few possible competitors to Apple's mobile computing platform juggernaut.

5. eBook readers - This category, pioneered by the Kindle and KindleDX, is an interesting one. I never thought I would buy a dedicated device to simply read books on, but when I got the chance to see and hold a KindleDX recently I knew Amazon was onto something. I still feel a device dedicated to reading will not fly, but if you throw in web surfing, eShopping, video, audio and media...with a 6x9 book form factor, long battery life, thin and light, and a pricetag somewhere south of $199, then you will have something. It needs to play inside a niche carved out between portable music players [read: iPod touch] and full-fledged tablets. Stay tuned on this one.

NOT:

1. Blu-ray. Why is this tech not hot? Think about it. On a small disk you can place 1080P, HDTV video, long enough to store an entire movie. Why is this not really cool? I'll tell you why...because there is no longer any MONEY in it. The players are finally cheap enough. The content is there. What's the problem? The problem is human nature. Most folks would rather stream a highly-compressed, low-res video over the Internet immediately than wait to buy a Blu-Ray disk. For most things, quality just doesn't matter as much as convenience. As Spock said: "It is not logical...but it is often true."

2. Digital cameras - So passe'. So last century. It's really a shame, since even the cheapest crapola digicam can outshoot any camera on a phone. Don't believe the reviewers. All camera-phone cameras suck way more than dedicated cameras cause their lenses are too slow, their "flashes" don't work right if at all, and they have really rudimentary exposure systems. The fact that folks don't really care about these issues simply underscores my previous statement that people will gladly trade quality for convenience.

Well there you have it, my predictions for CES 2010. But the most important metric of the entire conference will NOT be the hottest tech gadget. No way. Instead the most telling metric of the CES 2010 conference will be - ATTENDANCE. Yep, CES attendance is one indicator of technology industry health for the coming year. Since space is booked months in advance, however, it is probably a lagging indicator. Last year, CES attendance fell to one of the lowest figures in recent memory - approximately 110,000, which was a whopping 22% less than the previous year. And, as we all are painfully aware, 2009 was not a banner year for much of anything. If you watch nothing else regarding CES - watch the attendance. I predict that attendance will be around 120,000. North of that and we are in for a good year. Significantly less than that, I think we may see a repeat of 2009.

Kind of like Groundhog day for technology....stay tuned!

More OLPC fantasies

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 14:49:00 +0000

And the hits just keep on coming. Check out this post on Engadget via DVICE about the 3rd generation OLPC, newly reincarnated into tablet PC form. What? 3rd generation? What happened to generations 1 and 2? You guessed it...absolutely nothing.

As I talked about in my previous posts, when you run a company or group, you must be capable of balance. You have to be able to balance hype and reality. You need to understand how to use marketing for the betterment of your business long-term, not simply make a splash on the Internet, cause a buzz, and not be able to transform that buzz into tangible business success. That is not going to happen when all you do is create pretty pictures on web pages, or fancy powerpoint decks with vaporware promises.

I'll give the guys at Fusion Garage some credit. At least they have working prototypes. It remains to be seen if they ever sell more than a few thousand [which would be a feat]. But the OLPC folks are simply engaging in fanciful imagineering.

Ever hear the expression "At some point in time you need to shoot the engineers and ship the product"?

Well, in this case is should be stated more like:

"At some point in time you need to shoot the designer and build something."

Shoot the designer.

Build something.

Nexus One - The Google phone changes nothing.

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:15:00 +0000

I'm not a big fan of Gizmodo's blog posts in general, but this guy has it right. So check out his post regarding the new, yet to be completely over-hyped, Google Android phone.

Bottom Line for those too lazy or time-starved to click the link above:

Google is going to be creating and marketing their own phone, apparently called the Nexus One, which is basically their version of an HTC Android phone with their own marketing behind it. They will apparently be selling unlocked phones which can be used on more than one carrier, which is relatively novel in the US [very common in Europe]. And, although interesting, this is definitely not new. Further, there are several issues with this approach:

1. It will cost more initially. Most US consumers buy on price. Period. This phone, when unlocked, will have to sell for over $300 without a carrier contract. Perhaps way over. Unless this thing is head and shoulders better than the iPhone, why would any "normal" consumer buy one?

2. It won't cost less per month. Do you think the carriers will charge you less per month just because you gave a bunch of money to Google? Perhaps, but not much. My guess is that monthly charges for the Nexus One will be no more than 25% less than an iPhone under contract. The presence alone of the GPhone will cause price pressure to ensure this happens.

3. It won't be as robust as the iPhone. HTC is a good ODM, but without the maniacal leadership from a company like Apple [who actually knows how to manufacture hardware and systems by the way] they will not approach Apple's build quality and robustness for a while. Sure they will get there, but not yet. I would not buy the first [or second] generation of the GPhone, unless you like headaches.

So, given all that, what's the big deal? I'll tell you. Techno-geeks, like the ones who write most tech blogs [but not this one of course ;) ] are BORED with the iPhone. So they want something else to write about and play with. The GPhone is their best bet; the coolest, brightest, shiny-est object out there. So they have anointed it as way cool and the Next Big Thing. Regardless of the facts.

Sure the Gphone will have great initial sales figures. Sure it will have a ton of marketing coverage. Sure it will be the darling of the consumer electronics industry and be all over CES next month. That is, until reality sets in with real consumers. Remember the Palm Pre?

Will Android-based devices be a big deal someday? You bet. In fact, I predict in 2011 Android could start making some serious inroads into the mass market and actually catch up with the hype. But until then it will just be a bunch of geeks and marketeers, hoping for the best.

Wait and see.

Kodak AWB best in mixed-mode lighting

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:14:00 +0000

There I was. At the camera bar of my favorite Wal-Mart...or was it Best Buy? I had a daunting task before me. It was a tough job, but someone had to do it. Yes, campers, I faced one of the more difficult and challenging endeavors of mankind. I had to buy a digital camera for Christmas. Horrors of horrors!

A little over the top? Perhaps, but I don't think so. I bet most non-techies feel this way when they walk up to the bevy of digital offerings at their local chop-shop store. Which one is the best? Which one takes the best pictures for MY needs?

And, as you already know, the wonderfully helpful staff, always eagerly waiting to service your every whim, is there, smiling warmly...or not.

OK...let's cut the crap. I needed a point and shoot. I wanted to take pictures of my 2-year old daughter, so I needed something with the following characteristics [in no particular order]:

- Fast lens [low f-number to techies]
- Good Auto exposure
- Relatively small
- Able to take decent pictures indoors with rapidly moving and uncooperative subjects [like kids]

Doesn't sound too tough, does it? Well if you feel that way you would be...wrong. Drat. I hate it when that happens.

Now, I could write a long, boring tomb [no, not my initials...guess again] regarding the characteristics of digital cameras, technical terms that you don't care about, yada, yada, yada. But this is a blog, not a book [uh...could have fooled me].

So here is the bottom line: Most point and shoot cameras really, really SUCK. They have some shortfall that will raise it's ugly head approximately 2 seconds after the warranty runs out. Just get over it.

Now, having said that, my favorite digital cameras in the point and shoot category for Xmas 2009 are [drum-roll please...]:

1. Canon SD780is - This camera is a joy to behold. Incredibly small, slick and sexy. Fast startup. Great auto-exposure. Lots of options [you'll never need]. OK lens. But note: this camera SUCKS with pictures taken at night in compact-flourescent lighting. That means the Auto-White-Balance [AWB] of the camera cannot understand the color of this particular light, and when mixed with the camera's own flash, the pictures always come out with a strange yellow color which looks horrible. Too bad...otherwise this camera is a keeper.

2. Canon SD1200is - Also a very nice little camera. Cheaper than the SD780, but identical in most every way except:
1. A larger camera; not as sexy, but still compact.
2. 10MP instead of 12MP which, in my opinion, is actually desirable [subject of another blog].
3. Does not have the "evaluative" white balance manual setting. As you'll see below, I think manual settings are useless for most people, so this is a non-issue for most of us.
4. --> Note that this camera also exhibits the TOTALLY SUCKY AWB performance under CF lighting with flash I talked about above. Too bad...again.

3. Nikon. IMO, all Nikons have really gone down hill. I still have them listed only because of their general build quality and capabilities, but in general they are not nearly as good as they used to be. They are slow to start. Shot-to-shot is horribly slow. Sure they have all the features, but who cares if you can't get the shot off when you need to. Avoid them. Perhaps next year's crop will be better.

4. Kodak. I know it's hard to believe, but Kodak actually has cameras that outshine the competition this year. Especially, with the dreaded AWB problem I talked about above. I suspected the Kodak might do better because I had an old Kodak V603 which did a fine job before I undertook this mission. And sure enough, the first Kodak I tried, the Kodak M381, performed admirably with CF light, effectively getting all the colors correct, rich, and natural-looking. The camera also works well in all other respects you would care about. It's relatively fast. It's compact, but by no means small. Startup and shot-to-shot times are good. Autofocus is acceptable. My only concern with Kodak is build quality. The Best Buy salesperson told me that, of all the cameras they sell, Kodak gets the most returns. The camera does not seem nearly as solid as the Canons or Nikons. I feel that if I look at it the wrong way, it will break. But it works best in mixed-mode light. Ugh.

So, who should care about this mixed-mode light problem? Well you should. As energy costs rise, more and more people are switching the lights in their homes to the CF type, which will save you over 75% of the cost over conventional incandescent lights. Just go to your local Home Depot or Lowes and saunter by the light bulb section [usually placed conspicuously near the entrance] to see exactly how big a deal this is.

So if you are looking for a camera this year, make sure you perform this simple test:
1. Take it home and wait till dark [oooohhh, scary!].
2. Turn on your inside lights.
3. Take pictures. A lot of them. Lots of flash pictures.
4. Check them out. Do the colors look natural? Are they overly yellow? REALLY yellow? If so, you may have the mixed-mode lighting problem. And you may want to consider invoking your camera store's return policy.

Disclaimer time: OK...for all the geeks out there who will write in and tell me that using manual settings can overcome this problem...so what? Nobody except geeks even knows that manual settings exist, let alone wants to bother switching between them when you are in the middle of a toddler-fest. Do it once, and then forget to switch back the next day causing your outdoor pictures to all look horribly blue. This will cure you of this practice.

Don't be caught by this problem. Don't ignore this issue. Don't practice What Not to Do. Test your new camera thoroughly in your home before you decide to keep it.

A JooJoo by any other name...

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:28:00 +0000

Well here is the next chapter in the CrunchPad saga. And, just as I predicted, as this device approaches shipment, the actual price that is being quoted is approaching something that makes more sense to an engineer. As usual, talk to a marketeer and he tells you what you want to hear, talk to an engineer, and he tells you what can be done. Marketeers sell products, but engineers deliver them. The effective migration between these two endpoints connotes a successful business. Arrington's CrunchPad, and perhaps Fusion Garage's JooJoo, although interesting, does not exemplify best practices in this area. In fact, they are showcasing mostly What Not to Do.

Back to the main event. The JooJoo is now quoted as shipping for $499. Amazing. Seems like I called this very price. Actually, it was quite simple to do once you know the size of the touchscreen, since the display cost is driving the price more than anything else. The only other variables are the presence of a subsidy model [which obviously the JooJoo does not have], and acceptable margin. It is also obvious from the $499 price point that Fusion Garage is willing to sell products for a razor-thin margin in order to buy market share. If Apple were selling the exact same product, it would be priced higher.

According to Fusion Garage, you should be able to order the JooJoo on Dec 11 by going to www.thejoojoo.com.

Fusion Garage's Chandra himself was quoted as commenting on Arrington's price predictions by saying "There are dreams, and then there are hallucinations."

That pretty much says it all.

Why didn't I think of that Dept.

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 17:24:00 +0000

I can't believe I did not think of this. I've got a ton of gear in my audio/video setup. I use a ProntoPro remote that I've custom-programmed to control the whole thing. I've known for a while now that the future of these things is being able to use something like the iPod touch [not your iPhone...you will never surrender your personal phone to the family living room unless you are single] to control the whole thing.
The problem has been that the iPod touch and similar devices are WiFi-based and most AV gear responds to IR [infrared] signals. The answer, I always thought, was building a custom IR-blaster to convert the WiFi signals to IR. Well, somebody did just that.
You can now buy the RedEye. Check it out. Pretty cool, albeit a little expensive. This hardware, if it does what I think how I think, probably has a unit cost of around $25-$35 in high quantities. This means they could sell it profitably for $99. That's probably where the cost will end up, after they recoup some funds from the unaware early adopters willing to pay to be the First on Their Block with this new toy.
For me, I'll wait till next Christmas, and get Version 2.0 for $99 [if they survive that long].

Metadata is more valuable than data

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:59:00 +0000

As always, Seth Godin is onto something. Check out his latest blog, entitled "Getting Meta". The basic premise is that information is valuable, but information about information may be more valuable. The prefix "meta" means "about", so the word "metadata" literally translates to "about data". It really refers to "data about data".

So what the heck is metadata? Well just about anything that provides information about something else is metadata. For instance, your address is metadata about you. So is your SSN, your bloodtype, your height, weight, etc. As you can see, there is actually a TON of metadata about you. Now, consider all the other things that have descriptive or otherwise informative information regarding them available. Product specs are metadata about those products. Regarding my own experience, the EXIF 2.1 spec details a whole bunch of metadata regarding images that can be extremely useful to people who deal with such data.

What about marketing data? Sales data? You bet.

Bottom line: whoever has access to and controls the most relevant and accurate metadata can affect serious inroads in the business of their choice. Seth knows this. You should to.

CrunchPad is dead

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:32:00 +0000

Today, with little fanfare, and more than a few whimpers, the CrunchPad, the brainchild of Michael Arrington, was officially cancelled.
Too bad, cause it was a cool idea. Create a drop-dead simple tablet PC for surfing, music, reading, video...you know, all the stuff that we do with our electronic gadgets to pass the time between actually doing work!
Mike Arrington had a great vision, but unfortunately a little thing called reality crept in and caused some problems. It's too bad that when that happens, people automatically start looking for scapegoats.
Technically, the only problem with the CrunchPad was it's cost. Even with so-called "free" software [which is never totally free unless you think these folks don't need to eat], the component costs alone drove up the cost of the CrunchPad to over $400 in low quantities. Sure, if you buy a million of them you get a deal. I don't need a million; I only want one.
In time, I'm sure we'll get something close to what Arrington has described. Perhaps the rumored iTablet will be the winner of the tablet race. If so, I guarantee you it won't sell for $199, or even $299. Not this year or next.
Will we ever see a $99 tablet? Sure. But we'll all have to pay the ongoing development costs to drive the component costs down, especially the touchscreen display. For a normal hardware business model, you'll need the cost of ALL the components to be less than $50 to even get close to a model which drives the appropriate gross margin to make it attractive. That assumes, of course, that there are no subsidies like cell phones currently enjoy.
So hang in there, Mike. I'm sure someone will crack this business. Bottom line: it can't simply be a good idea. If that's all it took, tablets would abound. In the real world, companies have to think they have a shot at making money somewhere in the process. Great leaders know this.

Happy Thanksgiving!

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 07:14:00 +0000

I hope everybody out there in tech land can take the time away from their computers to stop and think about how good we all have it. No matter how hard things get, I bet each and every one of us can still think of many, many other folks who have it worse off. So please count your blessings...rest up...and then go get those Black Friday deals!

tom

Don't pay for the full version of Win7

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:54:00 +0000

Check out this post from Woody Leonard over at Windows Secrets. In it, Woody talks about using the Windows 7 "upgrade" disc from Microsoft to perform a clean install. Most people think that, they MUST have a fully authenticated, valid copy of Windows running on their target PC in order to use the upgrade disc. If not, they feel they must purchase the more expensive "full version" of the operating system to get Windows 7 on their machine.

As Woody correctly points out, that is not the case. Turns out the Windows installer does not verify if the version of Windows you are starting from is valid or not. Just the version you are going to.

What does this mean? In simple terms, it means anybody can install a pirated copy of Windows on their machine, purchase a legit upgrade version of Win7, and get a fully validated copy of Win7 running on their machine for the price of the upgrade!

Why would MS leave so many "holes" in their process to allow folks to "steal" the upgrade version of Win7? Simple. They don't care. Really.

Think about it. All those pirates out there running stolen versions of Windows. That must irk the guys in Redmond to no end. Then they all chuckle when they "get a deal" by using the upgrade disc instead of the full version.

My guess is MS knows exactly what they are doing and could give a rip if the pirates do this. First, believe it or not, pirated copies of Windows are a small percentage of the total. Secondly, these guys were sliding by, perhaps for years, for FREE. Now they will be PAYING for a legit copy of Windows. This is the best way to bring them into the fold. And MS makes money to boot. It's a great deal for everybody.

There are actually a few different ways to get your version of Win7 authenticated without paying the full version price. See Woody's column for all the gory details. You should also check out Paul Thurott's excellent Windows pages.

Have fun...and get Win7...this time MS is for real. And it's worth it!

TI announces low-power bluetooth - more than a year on a watch battery!

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 15:03:00 +0000

Well, it's about time. That old IR standard has been around forever, and although it has worked pretty well, we are due for something better. I don't know about any of you, but I'm sick of waving my remote around aimlessly, flailing like some helpless camper shoing away a swarm of mosquitos, hoping against all hope that my wimpy little IR remote can command my stereo, TV, DVD player, what have you, to do my bidding just so I don't have to get my lazy butt off the couch.
Never mind that I probably could use the exercise. Never mind that it probably would take less time for me to get up and walk the five feet to my box and hit the power button. It's the principle of the matter. I want to be in control. I'm a man. And that's what we do.
Now, finally....FINALLY, we have hope. We the advent of TI's new low-power bluetooth, we should start to see a raft of new, radio-frequency [RF] based remote control systems which perform great, and don't cost an arm and a leg.
Now don't get too excited. There is still a lot of stuff that has to happen. TI will release the parts early next year. That means the earliest you'll see real, viable products will be Xmas 2010. And even then, they will be 1.0 products, which I never trust. Still further, remote controls need to be linked to a compatible receiver. That means, at least for your existing equipment, you'll need to buy a compatible box that links up to all your existing gear with IR repeaters. That's fine with me, since I do that already in order to hide by equipment in a cabinet. But you may not. In any event, I don't see a lot of folks scrambling to throw out all their old stuff just to get a cool new remote.
So this will take time, just like any new standard. But it will happen.

And when it does...no more arm flapping. Cool!

Dramatic view of Earth and Jupiter

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:01:00 +0000

Just had to show this completely unique perspective view taken by the Mars Global Surveyor in 2003. It shows the Earth at the top with Jupiter waaaaaaaaaay down at the bottom. This is NOT a composite. It is one picture, with both planets in the same frame at the same time. Taken from Mars. Thanks to DVICE for bringing this humbling viewpoint of our little planet to my attention. Here you are:

W. O. W.

One cool thing is that, although much bigger in the shot, Jupiter is actually much farther away from the camera than Earth. Earth was 86 Million miles from the camera, and Jupiter was a whopping 600 Million miles away. Just try to imagine how freakin big Jupiter must be!!

But to me, the most amazing thing is that we are here, amongst all this nothingness, clinging to this ball of dirt and water, all going about our everyday lives. All while this thing we call the universe keeps spinning round and round.

Just kind of makes you think...doesn't it?

If you want the hi-res directly from NASA, click here.

Cool.

10GUI - The next evolution in multi-touch?

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:23:00 +0000

The advantages of a multi-touch interface between a computing device and a human is pretty obvious nowadays, at least to anybody who owns an iPhone. But even before that, just watch an episode of Star Trek - The Next Generation and you'll figure out the only way that Data was able to use the bridge computers so quickly was that he was using a multi-touch interface. So the concept has been around for quite some time. It has merely taken some time for the engineering to catch up with science fiction. Now that we have affordable technology to make this happen, it's time to take it to the next level. That's exactly what is behind the concept outlined by Robert Clayton Miller at 10GUI.

Take a stroll over to his website and watch the little video demo he has put together. He has come up with a very compelling concept. Of course, it will take a ton more than some slick graphics and animation to turn this into reality. But this idea, presented in a very compelling way, may be a concept whose time has come. Now all we need is a company to build the thing [details, details!].

What do you think? Are we at the dawn of a renaissance of human-computer interaction based upon touch? Let me know!

tom

Intel's Light Peak - my new dock is ready!

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:48:00 +0000

The prospects of a super high-speed optical data standard have been long-touted and desired, but problems have limited its adoption. How expensive are the connectors? How expensive and difficult is the interface? Can you connect multiple taps over long distances? It appears Intel may have solved these problems, but it is still too early to tell.

Light Peak was announced this week at the Intel Developer's Forum [IDF] in San Francisco. The annual tech event showcases new technologies and standards being developed by Intel and its partners. Besides USB 3.0, Light Peak may be one of the most exciting new standards out there.

Some questions still remain. Can you couple multiple runs together, or are you limited to one run [ie point to point or multipoint]? Intel claims that 100-meter runs are possible with Light Peak and this is a fantastic achievement, but if you cannot create multiple drops, with flexible interconnects, the standards' applications may be limited.

Another great application of Light Peak technology would be a dock for your laptop with ONE small connector, the Light Peak connector. You simply drop your laptop onto a small docking pad, the Light Peak connector is energized, and BAM, your HD video display, keyboard, mouse, dolby multi-channel audio, all your external USB 3.0 hard drives, etc. are all connected at blazingly-fast speeds! Now, that would be awesome to behold.

Hopefully, Light Peak will not be simply interesting. Hopefully it will also be useful.

The real question regarding Palm using iTunes

noreply@blogger.com (Tom) — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 15:31:00 +0000

Finally, the Universal Serial Bus Implementer's Forum [USB-IF] has ruled on the efficacy of Palm's technique for getting the Pre to sync with iTunes, and, guess what? Surprise, surprise, Palm apparently did not play by the rules.

The USB-IF rules, that is. Here is how this aspect of the USB standard works in a nutshell. Every company that makes USB-compliant products registers for and gets ONE "Vendor ID", or VID. Only they can use that VID to identify their products to computers they are connected to. It appears, in order to get iTunes to recognize the Pre as a compatible device, Palm hijacked Apple's VID. Technically, this is a simple and effective way to get things to work. Unfortunately, this is not a technical issue. When Palm joined the USB-IF, they agreed to abide by the rules of membership. This practice violates those rules. It's as simple as that.

The REAL question here, however, is if Apple should be allowed to restrict other companies from making devices that can interact with iTunes the way the iPod does.

Well let's see here. Apple created and owns iTunes. Apple created and owns all the iPods. Shouldn't they be allowed to reap the rewards from their efforts? Why should they, after expending years and millions of dollars, be forced to allow all their competitors to glom onto their success and reap the rewards of their investment without doing the work? Seems unfair, right?

Whoa. Wait a minute. There are other parallels here. Seems to me there is another company in a little town near Seattle, WA, that owns a dominant piece of software. For years they have been under the microscope of legal authorities, being told that they must "open up" their operating system and let others have "equal access" to the technology they created, without ever paying them a cent. How is it OK for Apple to openly dominate one market, but completely wrong for Microsoft?

Truth is...it's not.

Every company should have the right to openly compete to dominate any market they choose, as long as they operate in a legal and ethical manner. But, when they do succeed, when they do achieve market dominance, the rules must change. When you are dominant in your market by a wide margin, you now attain a special status. You are no longer protected, because you no longer need protection.

So, just as Microsoft has had to learn this lesson, it is now time for Apple to learn it. Apple needs to open up interfaces and APIs to any technology which locks competitors out of any market in which they are dominant by a wide margin. That includes portable media players and smartphones.

Sorry Apple. Welcome to Microsoft's world.